US president-elect Donald Trump’s threat to turn the world’s second-largest country, Canada, into part of the United States by means of “economic force” represents the most serious threat to Canadian sovereignty since the War of 1812.
That conflict, fought over the course of three years, saw the Americans mount 10 separate land incursions into Canada before a peace treaty was ratified in 1815.
The idea the US would seek to annex its northern neighbour, like the War of 1812 itself, has been left to the mists of time but Mr Trump has now made territorial expansion a key part of his presidency.
In the guise of 19th-century American presidents who bought land or bullied their way to the continent’s west coast, Mr Trump floated the proposal of acquiring Greenland and the Panama Canal by force – as well as threatening to crush Canada economically if he did not get his way.
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“Canada and the United States: That would be really something,” said the president-elect at his Mar-a-Lago press conference.
“We don’t need their cars. You know, they make 20% of our cars… we don’t need their lumber. We have massive fields of lumber… we don’t need their dairy products. We have more than they have.”
Mr Trump did not campaign for the presidency on annexing Canada, but since winning the election, he has regularly aired the idea of making Canada “the 51st state.”
In Canada, leaders and analysts have simply chuckled by means of reply – or characterised his behaviour as a “negotiation tactic”.
But nobody is laughing now.
The outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau dropped his ineffectual charm offensive with these words on X: “There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States.”
The leaders of the country’s other main parties have also released statements in defence of Canadian sovereignty.
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Mr Trump’s joke is turning into an existential crisis.
Canada’s 40 million people live, for the most part, within 100 miles or so of the US border and they have done pretty well out of their relationship with America.
This year, Canada will post a trade surplus of $70bn (£57bn), made up of some of the things Mr Trump noted at the press conference (lumber and cars) and some things he did not (oil and gas).
Canada also gets a good deal out of its security partnership with the US. While the Americans buy tanks and planes and nuclear subs, the Canadians put their money into schools (among the world’s best), medical care (comprehensive and publicly funded) and pensions (generous and well-invested).
Mr Trump called Canadians “good neighbours” at his press conference but the real-estate baron knows weakness when he sees it and seems prepared to make his neighbours suffer.
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It poses crucial questions as Canadians prepare for a federal (general) election in the spring. How much pain are they willing to take? Ultimately, what does it mean to be Canadian?
They can draw strength from the War of 1812. Small bands of British soldiers, local militia and indigenous tribes held off the Americans as the two sides battled each other to something of a draw (the White House in Washington and much of Toronto were burnt in the process).
Canada would do well to achieve a draw this time around.
