The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) has raised alarms over a potential quantum computing threat to Bitcoin (BTC), describing it in a recent article as “a time bomb waiting to explode.”
The article addresses the possibility of advances in quantum computing posing a risk to Bitcoin’s security and potentially becoming a threat to the entire blockchain industry.
In theory, a quantum computer could decipher private keys in minutes, potentially rendering Bitcoin’s security architecture obsolete. This debate was recently rekindled when Google unveiled its Willow quantum computing chip on Dec. 9.
The crypto community raised concerns over the possibility of a quantum hack happening earlier than the commonly shared 10-year expectation. Consequently, the WSJ article tackled the proximity of such an event and how it could affect the traditional financial system.
$3 trillion impact
The article used a projection from a study published by the think tank Hudson Institute in 2022, which estimated losses exceeding $3 trillion across crypto and traditional financial markets if potentially triggering a global recession.
Arthur Herman, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, stated:
“What you’ve got here is a time bomb waiting to explode, if and when someone gets that ability to develop quantum-computer hacking and decides to use that to target cryptocurrencies.”
Moreover, the WSJ piece mentioned that, given Bitcoin’s market cap reached $2.1 trillion when it registered a new all-time high at $108,000, these estimates have likely grown.
Skip Sanzeri, co-founder of quantum-safe cybersecurity firm QuSecure, shared with the WSJ report:
“Bitcoin is going to get targeted like crazy. Banks have some regulation, some defense mechanisms and the ability to cover their clients, whereas bitcoin is the Wild West. Your wallet’s not going to reimburse you if your bitcoin gets stolen.”
The article also cited 1.72 million BTC dormant in addresses with exposed public keys, which would be especially vulnerable in a quantum hack. These addresses include the wallets of Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.
Furthermore, the article pointed out that even Bitcoin transactions waiting for the 10-minute block time are vulnerable, as hackers could eventually breach encryption and redirect funds.
Not waiting for the apocalypse
Despite the looming threat, experts stress that there is time to act. Avalanche founder Emin Gün Sirer said the immediate fears are unwarranted. He added:
“There is definitely a quantum apocalypse on the horizon at some point in the future, but that point is a sufficiently long time away that there is no need for panic.”
Tech giant Meta discussed the possibility of a “quantum apocalypse“ on an episode of its Metatech Podcast in August. Meta engineers highlighted that a quantum breakthrough threatens blockchain and all encryption-reliant industries.
As a result, software engineers are working to create robust post-quantum cryptography. In Meta’s case, they are combining traditional algorithms with new technologies to develop security standards that will work now and in the future.
These efforts mean that, although quantum computing is a real threat to the blockchain industry, calling Bitcoin a time bomb is inaccurate, as researchers are making contrary efforts to prevent the crypto industry’s collapse.
Meta’s tech experts concluded the conversation in an optimistic tone, stating that creating quantum-resistant cryptography is a complex task, but the challenge can be met head-on.
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