Every winter is different. Occasionally, readers ask me where all their birds have gone. Goldfinches are present one week and gone the next. Chickadees stop hitting the sunflower seeds. Nuthatches vanish.
Then, on that first big snowstorm of the year, birds return to mob the feeders as if it is their last meal ever.
The forest is a dynamic place. Food resources for birds are good in some years, and poor in others. Food is always good somewhere, but seldom good everywhere. Birds move around in winter much more than most people would suspect.
It’s also hard to picture how a simple backyard feeder is connected to the vast North American landscape.
Birds routinely travel great distances to find adequate food in winter, until they run into physical barriers, such as the Great Plains, the Rockies and the Atlantic Ocean. These landscape features tend to funnel migrating species southward.
Maine’s backyards are directly connected to eastern Canada’s vast forest. Winter conditions up there affect what we see here.
A couple of weeks ago, I made a few predictions of species we might see this winter, based on the food resources I was observing in Maine.
I’m not the only prognosticator. Canadian biologists participating in the Finch Network make annual predictions, usually around the end of September. For our continued amusement, they have just issued a progress report.
The original finch forecast described the Canadian forest as “Swiss cheese.” There were good food resources for some birds and not others, scattered across the eastern provinces. They predicted pine grosbeaks would stay north this winter.
So far, they’ve been uncannily correct. A bumper crop of mountain ash berries along the St. Lawrence River in Québec is keeping the pine grosbeaks well-fed and very happy in Canada. There have been virtually no sightings in Maine this month.
Evening grosbeaks also eat fruit, though they prefer spruce budworms. Evening grosbeaks took advantage of a strong berry crop in the northern forest to raise their chicks this summer. However, those berries were long since devoured. The finch forecast predicts a moderate southward movement of evening grosbeaks this winter.
So far, that movement has been slower than expected, though there have been scattered sightings in Maine. It appears that those mountain ash berries in Québec may be holding evening grosbeaks up there as well.
Purple finches were predicted to leave Canada, and they did. It looks like they have also departed northern Maine. Most sightings have occurred in southern Maine this month. Put that finch forecast in the win column.
Tent caterpillars in many parts of Canada reduced the foods preferred by redpolls, but not in the eastern provinces. Redpolls were predicted to stay north this winter. So far, they have.
Pine siskins were predicted to stay north, but wander. There are good balsam fir cones in some areas. Other areas of Canada were badly hit by spruce budworm over the summer. The Finch Network predicted the siskins would stay north of the border in their search for adequate balsams. So far, that’s exactly what’s been happening.
Last winter was a bad food year for the large cones preferred by red crossbills. Many invaded southern Maine, and devoured pine cones all winter. This year the Canadian cones have recovered, and the Maine cones have not. Score another win for the forecast.
Red crossbills are not coming into Maine much, yet.
White-winged crossbills are proving enigmatic. They prefer spruce cones, and Canada produced a good crop this year. White-winged crossbills were predicted to stay north. Most have. There was a big movement in November from west of the Great Lakes, with one crossbill traveling as far as Bermuda — only the second one ever seen there.
Nonetheless, from eastern Ontario through Québec, as predicted, white-winged crossbills haven’t moved much. There have been very few reports in Maine so far this winter. I’ve only heard two.
Among the non-finches, the Finch Network predicted that Canada’s healthy fruit crop would keep the Bohemian waxwings out of Maine this winter. Sure enough, they’re all over those darned mountain ash berries in Québec. Almost none have been seen in Maine this month.
Many red-breasted nuthatches were predicted to flee Canada, and likewise northern Maine. Some did, but not as many as in other recent winters. The moderate flight is consistent with the September prediction.
Blue jays were predicted to move south in big numbers. Supposedly, that is happening. But you can’t prove it in my yard. They’re cleaning out my feeder daily.
