Between 2009 and 2014, Sir John Sawers was known as “C” – the head of MI6.
Following the collapse of the Bashar al Assad regime in Syria, he spoke to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips about the situation in the country, and what the next steps will be.
In less than a fortnight, the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) has managed to overturn a regime that has held power for more than 50 years.
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Sir John lived in Syria in the 1980s and said he saw the oppression from the Assad regime “with my own eyes”.
Will there be a peaceful transfer of power?
“It’s encouraging, I think, that the outgoing prime minister has stayed behind to have some form of orderly transition of power,” Sir John said.
Rebels do not look to be “seeking vengeance” on any groups, he added – although there will be “some accounting” for the “terrible brutality” of the Assad regime. “There’s going to be some settling of scores at some point.”
The Assad regime only represented a “15% minority sect” of the nation, he said.
“A hard task lies ahead now to try to pull the country together.”
There are no traditions of democracy, but rather armed groups instead of political groups and units, he said.
“I think the Turks will play a crucial role in trying to bring these various groupings together to form a single, coherent, new regime.”
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Will the collapse have been a surprise to the UK and its intelligence services?
“I think it was a surprise to everyone – it probably came as a surprise to [HTS],” Sir John said. “I don’t think they expected to go so far, so fast.
“I think we’re all surprised at how the regime forces have just completely collapsed – even those most loyal to the regime and closest to the regime.
“So, yes, it is a surprise. It’s not a failure of intelligence. It’s a surprise to everyone.”
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Should we be cautious about an al Qaeda affiliate taking over?
Sir John said: “When I was chief of MI6, we looked at all these Syrian opposition groups and classified them into those we could support and those who were beyond the pale and too close to al Qaeda. And [HTS] was definitely in the latter category.
“But I think Abu Mohammed al Jolani, the leader, has made great efforts over the last 10 years to distance himself from those terrorist groups.
“And certainly the actions we’ve seen of HTS over the last two weeks have been those of a liberation movement, not of a terrorist organisation.”
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Should HTS stay on the proscription list?
Sir John said: “I think the home secretary will be asking MI5 and the Joint Terrorism Assessment Centre for review of the situation about [HTS] and whether it should remain on the proscribed entity list.
“It would be rather ridiculous, actually, if we’re unable to engage with the new leadership in Syria because of a proscription dating back 12 years.”
There’s a “new reality” in Syria now, he added.
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Did Turkey have a hand in this?
“Turkey certainly has a close interest in this,” Sir John said, despite Turkey and HTS not having the closest relationship “in terms of co-operation and training and supply”.
“I think things have moved in a very favourable direction for Turkey,” he added.
“And I think they will be the most interesting and influential country in the region now as the various opposition groups come together to try to have a consensus about how a new regime comes into play.”
What about the Russians?
The Russians “may have a role here”, Sir John believes.
“They have a major naval base and intelligence collection base at Tartus on the Mediterranean coast of Syria.
“And they will want to hold on to those facilities, which means they have to come to terms with the new group, new powers in Syria.
“But of course, they’ve been instrumental in keeping the repressive Assad regime in power.”
And Iran?
“I think Iran will be watching this with great nervousness, great anxiety,” Sir John said. “The events of the last week or so in Syria are exactly what the Iranian regime fears could happen in Iran at some point.”
Iran is more “sophisticated” as a state, he said – but it is “still a minority regime with limited consent”, which has led to unrest in recent decades.
The former spy chief said Iran “seems to be pulling back” from Syria, having been weakened by Israeli airstrikes on the defences of Iranian nuclear facilities.
“So I think they’re feeling vulnerable, Iran. I think it’s very unlikely they’re going to play an assertive role and I’m quite encouraged by the fact that the Iranians do seem to be willing to re-engage with Europeans, with Americans.”
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What is Israel thinking?
“For Israel, they’re watching carefully,” Sir John said.
The Golan Heights region, which is between Syria and Israel, has been “actually quite quiet” for the past 50 years, he said – meaning they haven’t had issues on that border.
However, Israel “will be nervous” about the conflict.
There has been an “implicit understanding” between Israel and Russia, Sir John added, with Russia ensuring Syria would not attack Israel through the Golan Heights.
In return, “the Israelis have done nothing to undermine the Syrian regime”.
The former intelligence boss said it was a “sort of dirty, unwritten deal” between Israel and Russia.
He said there will now be planning under way in Israel for the potential “worst case scenario” of Syria “breaking up into smaller units, with armed groups who could well turn that fire on Israel at some point”.
This is “less likely” although “certainly not impossible”, he said.
“I think the Israelis are going to have to come to terms with Turkey on this, because Turkey is going to be the main power broker.”
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Is the situation similar to Afghanistan, Iraq or Libya?
Sir John said Libya is the “most apposite” comparison, but is still a “bad” one.
This is because the country is “divided between different groups” – with the majority of Syrians being Sunnis who have been oppressed.
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“I think there’s a good opportunity for them to come together and have a new government, a new constitution, a new dispensation there,” the former MI6 boss added.
“Yes, there will be a very difficult time ahead, and there could well be elements of the old regime, as we saw in Iraq in the 2000s, elements of the old regime, the fighters who are rear guarding the insurgency in the Alawite heartland in the northwest of Syria – I hope that doesn’t happen.”
