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If you are into crypto, you would be well experienced with its unpredictability. It is full of surprises. One day, prices soar and the next they might fall. According to Gareth Nicholson, Chief Investment Officer at Nomura, 2025 might bring some huge turmoil events to the global financial markets. He had made a 100 pages report for the next year that also contains some “Gray Swan Events”. Let’s understand what these events are and how they can affect the crypto market in the upcoming year.
What These Gray Swans Mean for Crypto
Gray Swan Events are such events which have very low or almost no chance of happening but if they happen, leaves huge impacts. Nicholas has mentioned the below mentioned events in his report in Nomura’s 2025 Outlook.
1. NVIDIA Crash: Trouble for Crypto Mining
NVIDIA is more than just a tech giant—it’s at the core of crypto mining. If its value drops sharply, miners might struggle to get the hardware they need. This could slow down blockchain networks and leave smaller cryptocurrencies exposed to attacks. If miners can’t access affordable tech, it could also lower confidence in the entire crypto ecosystem. A crash like this could lead to panic selling, and as a result, Bitcoin and altcoins may tumble.
2. Carry Trade Unwind: Liquidity Fades
If this happens people will not have funds to invest more in crypto and they can even withdraw their crypto portfolios. Even big investors, in order to secure their money, might pull out their funds from the crypto market, triggering panic sales and plummeting. Still, some investors may see Bitcoin as a safer bet during tough times, viewing it as a hedge against traditional markets. But it’s a gamble either way.
3. Rising Treasury Yields: Pressure on Bitcoin
If US Treasury yields go above 6%, it might make more sense for investors to park their money in safer, steady options. For crypto, this could reduce its appeal. People might move away from high-risk assets like Bitcoin and opt for more stable returns. However, Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against inflation could grow in this scenario. Higher Treasury yields might weaken the dollar, and Bitcoin could be seen as a better alternative. In the end, how people view Bitcoin—either as “digital gold” or just a speculative investment—will determine its fate.
4. US Growth Shock: What Happens If the Economy Slows Down?
If the US economy unexpectedly slows down in 2025, it could cause big problems for markets worldwide. A shock like this would reduce the amount of money available for investment, making it harder for people to access funds and causing markets to drop. The crypto market, already seen as high-risk, might take an even bigger hit as investors pull back from risky assets. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could see their prices fall as the global financial environment tightens.
5. Geopolitical Tensions: Can Bitcoin Handle It?
When political conflicts happen, markets usually take a hit. Investors often turn to safer assets like gold, which can cause crypto to struggle. The world has witnessed this multiple times like during the conflicts in the Middle East. However, Bitcoin might stand out in these tough times. Since it’s decentralized, people in areas with financial restrictions could see it as a way to keep their money safe. While political tensions may cause short-term drops in the crypto market, Bitcoin could gain more support in the long run as people look for alternatives to traditional finance.
6. China stimulus falls short
If China’s economic stimulus plan doesn’t live up to expectations, it could cause a slowdown in demand for Bitcoin. Investors might lose confidence in China’s ability to boost its economy, which could spill over into global markets, including crypto. Instead of pushing Bitcoin’s price higher, this scenario could result in lower investor sentiment and increased volatility, as markets react to the disappointment.
How to Prepare for the Unexpected?
These gray swans are unpredictable. However, crypto investors can still take a few steps to protect themselves:
Diversify: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Invest in Bitcoin, stablecoins, and other altcoins to spread your risk.
Stay Informed: Watch global trends, interest rates, and political changes. Crypto doesn’t exist in a vacuum; it’s part of the larger global economy.
Use Risk Management: Tools like stop-loss orders and portfolio rebalancing can help you minimize potential losses.
Think Long-Term: The crypto market is volatile. But focusing on its long-term potential can help you stay calm through short-term drops.
Why Does It Matter?
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are now part of the larger financial ecosystem. Events like an NVIDIA crash or rising Treasury yields could bring both challenges and new opportunities.
The key to navigating 2025 will be staying informed, flexible, and prepared for the unexpected Gray Swan Events. Crypto’s future will depend on how well it adapts to these changes. By preparing yourself, you can make the most of whatever happens in the coming year.
