Johnson’s next margin headache: Manchin-style Republicans

Speaker Mike Johnson is staring down what could be a one-vote majority to enact the House GOP agenda in the first months of the second Trump era. The practical effect will be that every member of his conference has the potential to be the next Sen. Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema, who had outsized power to snarl Democrats’ priorities under President Joe Biden.

Who will have the biggest sway in the tiny House GOP majority?

• Frustrated conservatives: There are scores of examples just this Congress of a small bloc of conservative lawmakers sinking legislation because it didn’t align with their ideology, didn’t slash spending enough or failed to include their favored policy provisions. Three hard-liners on the Rules Committee — Reps. Chip Roy of Texas , Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Ralph Norman of South Carolina — often prevented legislation from hitting the floor and are poised to be headaches again for Johnson next year. 

• SALT-y big staters: Republicans from the high-tax states of New York, New Jersey and California are vowing to try again to expand the federal deduction for state and local taxes as part of any tax bill next year, after a GOP Congress capped it in 2017. They’ll have big leverage if they want to flex it, though conservatives have generally opposed all efforts to sweeten the deduction. Look for potential pressure from members including Mike Lawler of New York, Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey and Young Kim of California.

• Higher office aspirants: Republicans who run for state-wide office back home could deplete Johnson’s stable of votes if they’re out of Washington campaigning. Lawler, Reps. Kevin Hern (Okla.) and Byron Donalds (Fla.) are seen as potential candidates for governorships. It will be an attendance factor to keep an eye on for expected tight votes.

• The actuarial caucus: Not to ruin your Thanksgiving dinner prep, but one undercooked dinner plate could sideline enough House Republicans to (temporarily) prevent votes on controversial legislation. Three members of the House (all Democrats) passed away during the current Congress. There will be 13 members of Congress at the start of the next session older than 80, including three Republicans: Hal Rogers of Kentucky, John Carter of Texas and Virginia Foxx of North Carolina.

When will we know what Johnson has to work with? After three weeks of counting, Democrat Adam Gray moved ahead of GOP Rep. John Duarte on Tuesday night in California’s Central Valley. If that lead holds, as well as those in two other uncalled races, Republicans would likely have a 217-215 majority in the House for much of Trump’s first 100 days, given the expected departures of Republican Reps. Michael Waltz of Florida, Elise Stefanik of New York and Matt Gaetz of Florida. And a reminder: A 216-216 vote would fail.