There is a dilemma at the heart of global climate talks.
Burning oil, gas and coal is the biggest driver of climate change, which is unleashing deadly flooding in Spain, in Colombia and more destructive hurricanes in the North Atlantic.
But the industry producing these fossil fuels is a cash cow: making £2.8bn in profit every day for the last 50 years, according to one analysis of World Bank data.
That’s money that many nations can barely afford to live without, as they try to lift people out of poverty and provide everyone with power.
Some countries, like oil-rich Saudi Arabia or Azerbaijan, which is hosting the current COP29 climate talks, want to squeeze every last drop of oil and lump of coal from their land they can.
Shifting the rules of the game
But there is a country trying to forge a different path.
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Colombia is in the top ten biggest coal producers in the world – and yet it’s trying its best not to be.
“We need to shift the rules of the game,” said environment minister Susana Muhamad.
“We definitely need it to be more valuable for countries to keep the oil in the ground and the forests up.”
But right now, “it’s more valuable to take the fossil fuels out and to deplete the forests”, she said.
It is trying to shake up that system with a plan that could create a model for other countries to follow.
If it fails, it would bode badly for other fossil fuel producing countries that the world wants to go green.
Colombia’s first step was to end all new exploration licences for fossil fuels – a move made under the country’s first ever leftist president, Gustavo Petro, elected in 2022.
Oil and coal are key to Colombia’s economy, generating about 8% of GDP and around half of its exports. Its oil reserves are falling, but it still has plenty of coal.
To replace that income, the Amazon nation’s second step is to expand other parts of the economy.
At COP29, it’s trying to woo investment into its new $40bn portfolio of green projects, including eco-tourism, sustainable agriculture and clean power projects to generate electricity it could export.
It’s been talking to the UK, Germany, Canada, US and the EU as well as development banks and private sources.
Muhamad is also calling for relief on its debt, and to be able to borrow money at comparable levels to developed countries, when it is currently three times as expensive on average.
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Going round in circles
But not everyone is on board with its plans. Since announcing them, its credit rating fell, and accessing capital became even more expensive.
“Right now we are just going around the circle with the old ways,” said Muhamed.
Unions are also worried about jobs.
“It’s a challenge,” admits Laura Sabogal Reyes from thinktank E3G, who has been working with the Colombian government. But they’ve been working on policy and labour markets alongside, she said.
Tomas Gonzalez, a former Colombian Conservative energy minister, called President Petro’s approach “very radical”.
“As long as there is demand, someone will meet it, so restricting Colombian production doesn’t reduce emissions globally,” Gonzalez said. “But for Colombia, it means major sacrifices in fiscal revenue and funding for public spending.”
Does the world need a fossil fuel treaty?
Colombia is one of 13 countries that has endorsed the idea of a Fossil Fuel Non Proliferation Treaty, which aims to wind down fossil fuel production in different countries in a fair way.
Science and energy thinktanks agree that no new fossil fuel projects are compatible with global climate goals to limit warming to no more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
Last year, at COP28 in Dubai, all countries agreed to “transition away” from fossil fuels in an “historic” pledge.
“A fossil fuel treaty would be a plan for how to do that,” said Tzeporah Berman, who founded the treaty.
The treaty would do away with fossil fuel subsidies that “artificially distort” the market and inflate supply and demand, she said.
Robbie MacPherson, a Churchill Fellow researching lessons for the UK from Colombia, said “some governments are being braver than others” in trying to implement last year’s pledge.
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“Other countries will be watching to see if Colombia’s attempts to move away from oil and coal are successful before making the leap themselves.”
Fossil fuel subsidies, relieving countries of debt and funding green projects in developing nations are all key parts of the negotiations at COP29, due to end on Friday.
Rich governments like the UK must “deliver not only a just transition for their own communities, but financially support other countries like Colombia to do the same”, said MacPherson.
“This will be critical to ensuring the world transitions away from fossil fuels anything like fast enough.”
