Democrats were dominating absentee voting across Maine with three weeks to go until Election Day, but Republicans have a narrower gap in the crucial 2nd Congressional District.
Those two facts taken together show no clear advantage for either party entering the chaotic Nov. 5 election with former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket along with a major congressional race in the state’s more conservative half.
What’s the context: It’s not news that Maine Democrats are winning the early voting battle. They do that every year. Republicans have struggled to match their absentee ballot apparatus in the years before and after Trump’s takeover of the party.
That was cemented in 2020, when the pandemic shifted people to absentee voting and Trump heavily criticized the method alongside false claims that President Joe Biden stole the election.
As of Tuesday, Democrats had made 47.6 percent of the absentee ballot requests statewide and 43 percent in the 2nd District, according to data from Secretary of State Shenna Bellows’ office. Respectively, those figures were 22.2 percent and 26.6 percent for Republicans.
The big picture: The gap between Democrats and Republicans in the 2nd District, which also features a major race between U.S. Rep. Jared Golden and state Rep. Austin Theriault, was 8.5 percentage points smaller than it was in 2020 and only slightly bigger than it was in 2016.
This absentee voting data is not a predictive tool. For example, Democrats had a smaller gap ahead of the 2018 election that gave them a Golden victory and full control of state politics. But it can show signs of momentum and organization that can come into play by Election Day.
What’s really happening: The parties have access to much more information than we do, including the voter rolls and files that show how much people vote and the issues that may move them. The types of people voting early matter as much as these figures, but parties typically like their voters to do it because they can then target others.
The fact that Republicans are doing better in the 2nd District is a function of party registration and their efforts to cement a third consecutive Trump victory there. The party has heavily promoted early voting this year, although voters are still far more likely to cast ballots in person.
What they’re saying: “In CD2 and the pockets of [the liberal 1st Congressional District] that we’re focused on, we’re very happy with the numbers,” Jason Savage, the executive director of the Maine Republican Party, said. “We still have a lot of work to do.”
The Maine Democratic Party pointed to a higher share of unenrolled voters requesting ballots early, which includes younger voters likely to support Harris. In a statement, the party nodded to a higher share of Republicans despite “lies” by Trump and others.
“It’s not unusual in Maine for voters to cross party lines, and many Republicans have expressed their intention to put country over party and vote for Kamala Harris this year,” a state party spokesperson said.
