AUGUSTA, Maine — Democrats who have controlled Augusta since 2018 are warning of a Republican spending advantage in upcoming elections for the Maine House of Representatives.
Money has loomed over the majority party’s recent successes. After Republicans lost the Legislature in 2012, they blamed a Democratic edge. Six years ago, Democrats spent two-thirds of what went into legislative races. Their outside groups spent an even bigger share in 2022.
House Republicans have defied history this year, sensing an opportunity in what is now a narrow 79-67 majority for Democrats. Flipping the House would give Republicans their first foothold in State House politics during the era of Gov. Janet Mills, forcing her to negotiate with them on budget matters as she tries to stamp a legacy in the last two years of her tenure.
“Until the Maine people get them out of power and give Republicans a shot at running the Legislature, then we’re just going to get more of the same,” House Minority Billy Bob Faulkingham, R-Winter Harbor, said.
Republican outside groups have spent nearly $585,000 on House races to $507,000 for Democratic counterparts as of Sunday. The minority party has heavily targeted its spending, putting $400,000 into just 12 key races that could decide control. Democrats have only spent $159,000 in those elections but have supported candidates more equitably.
A look at the map shows other things conspiring against Democrats this year. They have eight members facing term limits to just four Republicans, plus other incumbents in closely divided districts including the Calais and Farmington areas not running for reelection. Those in charge of the Democratic effort noted that and the Republican money edge in a statement.
“Control of the legislative chambers has been close and hard-earned, often coming down to a handful of votes scattered across a few districts,” Sean Smith, the director of the Maine House Democratic Campaign Committee, said. “This is not the year to assume anything.”
In the early part of the last decade, Maine Democrats were supported by large donors including billionaire S. Donald Sussman. But he and other donors have pulled back from campaign spending in recent years, and Republicans have found some large donors of their own.
They include conservative judicial architect Leonard Leo, who gave $375,000 to a political network affiliated with state Rep. Laurel Libby, R-Auburn. The House and Senate Republican campaign arms have gotten $475,000 each from the national Republican State Leadership Committee. A national Democratic counterpart has not responded in kind this year.
The Libby-affiliated Dinner Table PAC, which warred with party leaders as it grew in 2022, has spent more than $250,000 to help Republicans so far. That is $110,000 more than the House Republican arm led by Faulkingham, who beat Libby out for the leadership post last year.
Faulkingham said there has been “some overlap and overkill” between the groups this year, but that it is generally good to have another big spender working to elect Republicans.
The House has eclipsed the Senate as the more competitive of the two chambers after a new round of redistricting that took effect in the 2022 elections. Senate Democrats have a 22-13 majority, and their outside groups have spent $311,000 more than Republican ones. The forecasting site CNalysis still gives Democrats an 87 percent chance of winning the House.
The race to replace Rep. Kathy Shaw, D-Auburn, was the first to draw more than $60,000 in outside spending, with two-thirds of it coming from Republicans so far. Another first-term Democrat, Rep. Daniel Hobbs of Wells, kicked off a big race by declining to run again.
That drew former state Sen. Robert Foley, R-Wells, and Democrat Jim Smith, a selectman in the same town, into a race that has seen $41,000 in outside spending — $29,000 of it from Republicans. On the ground, Smith said he is not letting the deficit bother him.
“Do I like the outside spending? No. Do I worry about it? No,” Smith said. “I’m just concentrating on meeting voters … so I can represent them well.”
