At a late-night drinks party this week, a senior Conservative took out his metaphorical sorting hat and assigned the Tory leadership candidates into Hogwart Houses.
According to this former minister who knows them all very well, Kemi Badenoch was Gryffindor “for courage”, Robert Jenrick was Slytherin due to “ambition”, James Cleverly was “loyal” Hufflepuff and Tom Tugendhat was Ravenclaw – “book-smart”.
It was a bit of fun, but it did make a more serious point.
Former centrist Mr Jenrick had, through ambition and some cunning, managed to muscle past other contenders on the right of the party – Suella Braverman, Priti Patel – to be the frontrunner in this race.
Kemi Badenoch, who prides herself on taking on a fight, telling hard truths and wading into culture wars, is a darling of the party because of her readiness to tell it as it is: and they both came into this party conference as the two frontrunners in this race.
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But this week it has been Mr Cleverly’s approach of party loyalty, steadfastness and friendship that has gained momentum as he impressed the hall in his “fireside chat” interview with GB News’s Christopher Hope – he got a standing ovation for that – and then delivered an assured performance on the main stage in the final act of this political beauty pageant.
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The former cabinet minister came to this conference trailing behind the two frontrunners with Tom Tugendhat. He leaves with some momentum as the bookies’ odds make him second favourite behind Mr Jenrick to win the leadership race, with Ms Badenoch pushed into third place.
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His team – and the man himself – are clearly very pleased with how the week has played out. “We knew we were coming in with a job to do, and we executed it. It’s gone exactly how we planned.”
Whether he makes it to the final two is anyone’s guess – this is still a very open race with a possibility that Mr Jenrick, Ms Badenoch or Mr Cleverly end up as the leader.
Mr Tugendhat looks more likely next week to be knocked out by MPs in the ballot on 9 October after a rather flat reception in the hall – but it’s all in play for the other three.
Because, for all the cunning and the courage of the frontrunners, Mr Cleverly has bolstered his chances by calling on the party to be “more normal” again and reiterating his experience.
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“Now is not the time for an apprentice. I’m not doing this because I want to be something. I’m doing this because I want to do something.” His pitch was traditional Tory – lower taxes, more military spend, cut red tape. His tone was friendly, optimistic and fun.
Mr Jenrick, who has set his stall on tackling migration and leaving the ECHR, has been the front runner in the first two rounds with MPs, but failed to lift the room as he delivered a speech without notes or autocue. He came into this conference ahead but failed to seal the deal.
Ms Badenoch promised to “tell the truth about our party, our politics our future” and said she would start from “first principles” to dismantle the “Blair and Brown framework of ever increasing social, economic and legal control”.
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After a bumpy week caused by controversy around various remarks she’s made on the fringes of this conference – be that on maternity pay, the minimum wage or civil servants needing to be “locked up’ – she will leave pleased at least with her pitch on stage.
There hasn’t been a gamechanger this week at conference, but Mr Cleverly has certainly played the game well and inserted himself into this race in a real way.
It will be up to MPs to decide whether the former foreign secretary will make the final two – but what he has proved is that ambition, courage and cunning are not the only routes to success.
What this week has also reminded us of is what a mammoth task whoever wins will have to rebuild the party after its worst election defeat in modern history.
