Ethereum’s co-founder, Vitalik Buterin, recently discussed war-related markets on prediction betting platforms. Buterin defended the existence of the Hezbollah betting section in Polymarket, noting their role as decentralized information tools for viewers.
Vitalik Buterin Backs Hezbollah Betting Section
On Monday, the crypto community discussed the existence of war-related betting markets after X user Legendary raised concerns. The community member said that having a dedicated Hezbollah section felt wrong as it made a war “look like a football game to bet on.”
Other members shared this sentiment, and agreed with the original post. However, many others countered the concerns, arguing that predicting markets on geopolitical problems is not trivializing.
Among the defenders, Vitalik Buterin backed the existence of the Hezbollah betting section, noting that these might be seen as just betting from the traders’ perspective, but, to the average viewer, these markets could serve as an information tool.
There’s all kinds of people (incl elites) on twitter and the internet making harmful and inaccurate predictions about conflicts, and being able to go and see if people with actual skin in the game think that something has a 2% chance or a 50% chance is a valuable feature that can help keep people sane.
Ethereum’s founder also explained that using these markets is not about “making money from bad stuff happening.” Instead, Vitalik Buterin considers it to create an environment “where speech has consequences (so both unjustified fearmongering *and* unjustified complacency are punished), without relying on governmental or corporate censors.”
Other community members shared a similar perspective, arguing that there is value in the decentralized prediction markets for people who don’t trust mainstream media or live in controlled states, as it is “helpful to see the ‘true’ odds on these types of events happening.”
Can Prediction Markets Influence Real-Life Events?
Chainlink guru Zach Rynes questioned Vitalik Buterin’s position. He wondered whether there should be a limit to what individuals should be able to bet on as people could take actions to force certain outcomes.
However, Ethereum’s co-founder noted that he, and most prediction market advocates, are against extreme situations, such as assassination prediction markets. Some community members argued that adding morality “can be a slippery slope” as many companies people invest in or purchase from participating in subsidizing geopolitical conflicts.
Vitalik Buterin questioned how influenceable these markets were and whether they acted as a “primary incentive for people to do bad things so they can insider-trade on them,” suggesting we are far away from the markets’ existence influencing the outcome of grand-scale events.
It’s worth noting that his support of Polymarket isn’t new. Ethereum’s founder previously defended the decentralized prediction market as it faced regulatory scrutiny from the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Putting Polymarket into the category of “gambling” is a massive misunderstanding of what prediction markets are or why people (incl economists and policy intellectuals) are excited about them.
Vitalik Buterin also participated in Polymarket’s Series B funding, which raised $45 million in May, alongside Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund.
As reported by Bitcoinist, the prediction platform is seeking to secure $50 million in a new funding round. Additionally, it is reportedly considering launching its own token to allow users to vote on the platform.
