Something strange has crept through the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham this week.
What can only be described as a sort of euphoria.
“The gang’s back together,” a senior Tory tells me, beaming from ear to ear, “and we can actually enjoy it this time!”
The relief at losing the burden of responsibility, and watching the other team grappling to run the country, has given this conference an unexpected shot of joy.
What is more interesting – and it may be complacent – is the optimism that this is a party that can return in five years.
Almost every senior Conservative I’ve spoken to here thinks a 2029 victory is achievable.
There are two main reasons.
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Firstly, Sir Keir Starmer’s so called “shallow” victory in July. Former defence secretary Grant Shapps reckons just 2% of voters could have made the difference between a “resounding” Conservative win in the election.
What is for sure is that Labour’s landslide, built on just 34% of the vote – compared with Tony Blair’s 43% – is not as solid as it might appear.
The fact Labour went from one of their worst results in 2019 to one of their best in 2024 is a sign of just how volatile the electorate has become.
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Round every corner at the Conservative Party conference is an MP, or former MP, desperate to talk about those numbers.
The second reason the party thinks it can return to power so soon is the way the last few weeks have played out for the Labour Party.
The news of Rosie Duffield’s sensational resignation was a shot in the arm of this conference: there is pure glee here as Conservatives watch Labour struggle with the realities of government.
But optimism about such a swift return to power is naive.
Going from opposition to government is notoriously difficult and the Conservatives are still learning how to play their new role.
As someone here put it to me: “The Tories are behaving like they’re in government, Labour like they are in opposition.” Being in opposition is about making people listen, and the Tories are out of practice.
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They are also a party still facing questions about trust and competence, and haunted by Liz Truss – who might have attracted the biggest crowds, certainly of journalists, this week.
Pollsters suggest for a party to win they need to be ahead on leadership and economic competence. When the Conservatives lost their reputation with the economy in 1992 it took until the financial crisis in 2008 to get it back.
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The other option is of course to wait for the government to mess up. If the last five years have shown us anything, it’s how easily unexpected events can define politics.
The next few years may yet throw up more twists and turns, but for now what should feel like a wake feels more like a jolly family re-union. Remember: the first stage of grief is denial.
The buzz of a leadership contest has boosted this conference; as a cold dark November sets in, the real scale of the challenge this party faces will dawn on them. The next steps: depression, acceptance – and ultimately rebuilding voters trust – will take longer than the Conservative Party might think.
