Ahead of this direct Iranian missile attack on Israel, the second in its history, the US was warning Iran in the strongest terms: don’t do it.
If you do, it told Tehran, you will face severe consequences.
Israel’s messaging was reportedly going further. Attack us and we will come after your alleged nuclear weapons programme.
An impeccably connected New York Times correspondent says he has been told that was the message telegraphed to the ayatollahs of Iran.
Iran launches missiles at Israel: Follow live updates
Benjamin Netanyahu has made a career out of championing Israel against the Iranian threat. He may now be tempted to use this Iranian barrage as the justification for attacking Iranian nuclear facilities.
When Iran launched that first direct attack in April, Israel responded in a token way. Neither side was thought to want further escalation.
The same is unlikely to be true this time.
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Israel could choose to play down the impact of these missiles. If they do limited damage, Israelis will claim this as a second failure by Iran.
But they will tempted to hit back hard and will expect America to help them. The Middle East could be on the verge of a ballistic missile war.
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Israel’s leaders may feel this is the best opportunity they will get to neutralise the nuclear threat posed by Iran, which they believe is potentially existential.
Iran’s proxies in Lebanon, Hezbollah, are in disarray and its regime has been weakened by a struggling economy and the legacy of nationwide unrest, albeit quashed for now.
Israel may well decide this is the moment to strike.
