Bitcoin’s 4-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) remains above 50%, outperforming the Vanguard Information Technology Index ETF (VGT).
From 2016 through late 2024, Bitcoin’s CAGR has fluctuated but consistently surpassed VGT’s performance. In 2016, Bitcoin’s CAGR peaked above 200% before declining to about 50% by early 2017. A resurgence occurred by mid-2017 and climbed above 150% again in 2019 and late 2021. Despite a downward trend after 2021, Bitcoin’s CAGR stays robust above 50% in 2024, bottoming around 20 – 30% in 2022 and 2023.
Going forward, if Bitcoin’s price in 2025 is not 50% above its 2021 high (which would be approximately $103,500), the CAGR will likely drop below 50% again.
VGT’s CAGR has been relatively stable, ranging between 0% and 35% during the same period. Notably, from late 2017 to late 2021, VGT briefly outperformed Bitcoin, indicating that traditional assets rarely surpass crypto growth.
Bitcoin engineer apsk32 highlighted that the data suggests that no one has lost money holding Bitcoin over any 4-year period. However, the decreasing trend in Bitcoin’s CAGR may signal a diminishing window for high returns. The Bitcoin adoption phase presents a unique financial opportunity, but as growth rates decline, future gains may be less substantial.
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