There is still confusion around the fate of Hezbollah general secretary Hassan Nasrallah.
After suspiciously rapid statements that he was “safe”, there hasn’t been an update for some hours.
If he is alive, I would expect him to appear on TV as soon as possible to reassure his supporters in a message of defiance.
Israel-Hezbollah latest: Militant group commander ‘killed in Lebanon’
Israeli sources say he was the target of the attacks, but are yet to indicate whether they were successful.
The blast site is so large, it will take time for rescue workers to find the dead. The civilian death toll is likely to rise considerably.
This is a pivotal moment.
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If Nasrallah has been killed, it will be the biggest success for Israel so far.
Command structure in disarray
They tried to find and kill him in 2006, but failed.
Leaders can be easily replaced and often with someone more dangerous than before, as witnessed by the killing of the former Hezbollah leader Abbas al Musawi in 1992. He was succeeded by Nasrallah.
Even if Nasrallah is dead, Hezbollah isn’t.
The immediate assumption is the group would respond with barrages of missiles into Israel, probably targeting Tel Aviv.
Around 30 missiles had already been fired as of Friday night. We witnessed interceptions in Haifa and one rocket hit a house in Safed. Much more could come.
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But Hezbollah will again be in disarray. Their command structure has been severely degraded.
Iran’s choice
It will probably take time to co-ordinate a response and it will probably be with Iranian guidance.
Iran must also make a choice now.
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Tehran has not seen eye to eye with Nasrallah in recent weeks, but the loss of such an important ally would be a huge blow to the supreme leader – if it turns out that he has been killed.
Having resisted the opportunity to get involved, Iran might decide the time has come to take the gloves off and deploy the thousands of missiles they’ve provided Hezbollah with.
Alternatively, after such a difficult 10 days, they might decide this round of fighting needs to end and pull back with Hezbollah still in some shape to rebuild and fight another day.
