AUGUSTA, Maine — A chaotic presidential election and the swing-seat race in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District have dominated the 2024 political conversation here so far.
But Maine routinely has some of the nation’s most competitive legislative races. That is looking to be particularly true in the House of Representatives this year. The Democrats who have controlled Augusta since 2018 have key members leaving there with only a 79-67 majority.
The races have gotten off to a slow start, but the top races and themes are beginning to take root. Here are four themes we are noticing with just under six weeks left before Election Day.
The House is by far the most competitive chamber.
There are some competitive races in the Senate, but it is controlled 22-13 by Democrats. The huge gap means that Republicans will likely need multiple elections to contend for the majority there. On the other hand, the narrow majority puts the House in play for Republicans.
That’s mostly due to a few factors. Several Democrats are not running for reelection, including eight term-limited members to Republicans’ four. One is Rep. Jessica Fay of Raymond, who narrowly won a 2022 race that drew the most outside spending in the chamber.
Those departing members will matter at the margins. Fay’s district is one of six that drew nearly $10,000 in outside spending or more from Republican outside groups as of Tuesday. Four of them target seats being vacated by Fay and other Democratic Reps. Scott Landry of Farmington, Kathy Shaw of Auburn and Reagan LaRochelle of Augusta.
Spending has been slow, but the top Senate races are taking shape.
It has been hard to evaluate the map so far because spending from outside partisan groups has been slow. As of Tuesday, they had spent nearly $567,000, far behind the $1.1 million spent by that time in 2022, when these groups spent a record $6 million through Election Day.
More than $300,000 of that has come in to boost Senate Democrats. Republicans have countered with $156,000. Things have been slower on the House side, where Republicans have spent $116,000 to just $41,000 for Democrats. That makes the key Senate races easy to see.
Four races have already drawn more than $56,000 in outside spending. The biggest so far is the one between first-term Sen. Mike Tipping, D-Orono, who represents a sprawling and unique district running from his liberal town to the heavily conservative Lincoln area.
The others are LaRochelle’s race against fellow Rep. Dick Bradstreet, R-Vassalboro, for the seat being vacated by Sen. Matt Pouliot, R-Augusta, another open-seat race between former Reps. Bruce Bickford, R-Auburn, and Bettyann Sheats, D-Auburn, and a contest between Sen. Tim Nangle, D-Windham, and Republican businessman Kenny Cianchette of Windham.
Democrats return to abortion, their winning 2022 cause.
Democrats at both the state and national levels have continued to focus on abortion in the wake of conservative Supreme Court justices overturning Roe v. Wade in 2022. Gov. Janet Mills, a Democrat, ran hard on abortion rights that year against former Gov. Paul LePage.
Last year, Mills proposed and later signed abortion-rights measures, including one that drew sharp conservative protests by allowing doctors to perform abortions deemed necessary after the viability cutoff of around 24 weeks. Democrats are nevertheless going on offense.
One Democratic mailer goes after Cianchette by saying he “wants to take away women’s reproductive rights.” It only cites the Maine Republican Party’s platform. Cianchette does not mention abortion on his website and did not immediately respond Wednesday to a request for comment, but he told the Portland Press Herald he supports “a woman’s right to choose.”
“Expect more lies in the weeks ahead,” his campaign wrote Wednesday in a Facebook post. “We won’t waste our time responding.”
Republicans hit property taxes hard.
The Maine Senate Republican campaign arm launched Facebook ads last week that blame Tipping and other Democrats for “jacking up all seniors’ property taxes” by ending a popular tax freeze program last year.
The focus on property taxes is coming as bills have risen in many towns throughout Maine that have been catching up on long-deferred reevaluations while property values along with municipal and school-related costs have grown.
But the ads fail to mention how Sen. Rick Bennett, R-Oxford, put forward the replacement proposal that Democrats and some Republicans supported to also expand two existing programs for low-income seniors. The cost of the old program that let Mainers 65 and older freeze their taxes at the previous year’s level was also set to rise exponentially each year.
Senate Minority Leader Trey Stewart, R-Presque Isle, introduced the property tax freeze program that Mills allowed to pass without her signature in 2022. While Stewart fought for the program, he ultimately voted last year for the state budget that repealed the initiative. Tipping noted that in an interview and called the ads “incredibly ridiculous.”
“I’m incredibly disappointed but not surprised,” Tipping said. “It’s the worst kind of politics.”
