Political Viewpoints
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One of the factors that drove President Joe Biden to abandon his bid for reelection was the risk that a failed candidacy could hurt Democrats in other national, state, and local races.
The dynamic has shifted since Vice President Kamala Harris replaced Biden at the top of the ticket. And while any momentum Harris brings may boost the margins for down-ballot candidates in left-leaning districts, it is unclear how Harris will impact races in the handful of districts that voted for former President Donald Trump in 2020 but are represented by a Democrat in Congress.
U.S. Rep. Jared Golden is one of those Democrats running for reelection in Maine’s conservative 2nd District. In a visit to Auburn last month in support of state Rep. Austin Theriault, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, acknowledged that the race in northern Maine is “one of the most important in America.”
Golden, a three-term congressman, entered this campaign in a relatively strong position. In spring polling of registered voters by Digital Research, 36 percent of his constituents approved of Golden’s performance. That is by no means stellar, but it is on par with his approval rating in previous election years and is roughly equal to Democratic Rep. Chellie Pingree’s 41 percent in the liberal 1st District.
Still, in a tight race, which one recent poll has Theriault winning, Golden needs to thread the needle to capture any momentum Harris may have without getting too close to her. Theriault will also try to paint Golden as too tied to the national Democrats who are unpopular across rural Maine.
Indeed, Golden has said he will not vote for Trump, but he is refusing to say if he will vote for Harris. And he rankled many in his party with a Bangor Daily News Op-Ed in which he not only predicted a Trump victory over Biden but added “I’m OK with that” as he criticized Democrats who claimed that institutions would fail to contain the former president.
The Digital Research spring poll also showed that voters who approve of both Harris and Golden (16 percent) are as common as voters who approve of Trump and Golden (12 percent), suggesting that Golden’s been successful in walking that fine line as a Democrat in a Trump-friendly district going into this race.
But it’s also clear that Golden has room to grow: 33 percent of voters were unsure how they felt about Golden’s performance in the House, compared with 23 percent who were unsure how they felt about Harris as vice president and just 10 percent who were unsure how they felt about Donald Trump’s performance as President.
While the Trump-Golden voters are essential, the election in the 2nd District — and maybe control of the House altogether — will once again come down to the margins. Convincing voters who are unsure how they feel about him and Harris could be more important to Golden’s prospects than the few who are unsure about Trump.
Traverse Burnett is a research director at Digital Research, Inc., a Portland firm that conducts surveys for private-sector clients as well as regular political polls. The Bangor Daily News has previously paid the company for both types of surveys.
