And now…the optimistic bit.
Labour‘s plan, upon coming into government, was always to begin with what is sometimes called “kitchen-sinking”: throwing all the bad news out there (along with the kitchen sink). The idea being that not only would this get all the difficult, unpopular decisions out of the way early, most of this could be blamed on the Conservatives. So this first budget, the one coming up at the end of October, was always intended to be a little grim.
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But that was always supposed to be followed, relatively soon afterwards, with the more optimistic stuff. More money for investment, a spending review that would cover the coming years, and a whole series of Labour-branded capital projects to replace the Tory-branded projects Rachel Reeves was canning in her “inheritance/black hole” event.
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But the scale of reaction to the “black hole” announcement has been so significant that Labour is pushing ahead with the more optimistic stuff somewhat sooner than expected. The upshot is today the chancellor talked much more about “change” and “growth” than in her previous public appearances. She announced that the government will soon unveil an industrial strategy document which will lay out the sectors it will be supporting as the UK pushes towards net zero.
On top of that there were some smaller announcements which were intended to provide a little appetiser for Labour loyalists as they wait for the budget. In particular, the manifesto pledge for state-funded breakfast clubs in primary schools will begin to be put into action, with a pilot scheme from April covering 750 schools.
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The chancellor’s problem is that the scale of that pledge is, frankly, piddling – amounting to a mere £7m, which, in terms of the bigger fiscal picture, is little more than a rounding error. And the other pledges in her speech – in particular the announcement of an impending industrial strategy document – are not tangible, costed policies but promises of policies in future.
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Now in some senses this is not Labour’s fault. The UK economy is beset by all sorts of problems – a sclerotic planning system, low investment, poor infrastructure and, above all else, weak productivity growth. Solving those kinds of deeply embedded problems involves boring, long-term reforms, like reshaping the planning system so it’s easier to build infrastructure and homes. That kind of thing takes time. It will take many years to bear fruit.
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And while those policies, which Labour has said it is committed to, are being quietly implemented in the background, that opens up a kind of political vacuum into which other events intrude. Thus far, Labour has not been especially good at dealing with that vacuum. It has allowed the Westminster soap opera to take over. But such is the nature of the reforms they are planning in future – boring stuff (at least as far as some are concerned) such as industrial strategy and planning reform – that there’s likely to be plenty more room for soap operas in the coming years.
