This is a distilled explanation of political events. We’re using new story formats during the 2024 campaign to bring you more news. Send us ideas and feedback here.
Republican Austin Theriault has a narrow lead on Democratic U.S. Rep. Jared Golden, according to the first public poll of their race in Maine’s swing 2nd District.
The survey from Portland-based Pan Atlantic Research shows a poor environment for the Democratic incumbent in part due to former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in the conservative half of Maine that will be most in play this November.
Why it matters: The 2nd District race is already among the top races on the national House map, since Golden is perennially vulnerable as one of the only Democrats in areas that Trump won in both 2016 and 2020. His durability has been well documented in the past few elections, while Theriault is largely untested as a first-term state representative from Fort Kent.
The Pan Atlantic poll shows the Republican in a strong position. He led with 47 percent support to 44 percent for Golden, when counting 2nd District voters who committed to a candidate or the other or said they were leaning toward one. Another 9 percent were undecided in the survey of 800 voters with a statewide error margin of 3.5 percentage points.
Want the latest political news? Subscribers of Pocket Politics get breaking news and analysis on their phones before the stories go anywhere else. Text POLITICS to 207-288-7412 to get in. First two weeks are free, $3.99/month after that. Cancel any time. All links to the site are free.
This is remarkable because Golden opened his 2020 and 2022 races with solid leads on his Republican opponents. He was up 20 points in surveys at this time four years ago, while he led every poll by narrower margins against former Rep. Bruce Poliquin in the last cycle.
What’s the context: There are a few problems for Golden in this survey. It is a brutal political environment for Golden, who has not said whether he will vote for Harris this year. Trump leads her by 7 points in the district, which puts the centrist congressman in a hole from the start.
A poll last month from the University of New Hampshire gave Harris a 5-point lead in the district, though the Pan Atlantic poll comes closer to Trump’s history in the district and the expectations of many Republicans and Democrats in the state.
While Golden and Theriault have similar favorability ratings in the low 40s, a roughly equal share of voters have an unfavorable view of Golden. Only 29 percent have a negative view of Theriault, although this could change with time in the spotlight as well as attack ads.
The big picture: Overall, Golden’s net favorability rating has dropped by 19 points since the firm’s last round of polling in February. That is not a recipe for success. The bright side for him is that there are still voters left to win, though it will take his best campaign yet to do so.
