House Speaker Mike Johnson told other Republicans on Friday that he is “100 percent” convinced the GOP will win both chambers of Congress and the White House despite tight polling, privately sharing the party’s latest seat-by-seat predictions with two months before Election Day.
Johnson spoke on a House GOP conference call during which former President Donald Trump’s campaign aides also briefed members on the state of the race, according to a detailed readout of the call provided to POLITICO.
The Louisiana Republican laid out the path to 218 seats and the House majority, telling members the party considers 211 seats to be safely in their column, with Democrats projected to win 205. That leaves 19 seats — and the majority — up for grabs.
Republicans could “have up to a 13-seat majority on a good night,” Johnson said.
The speaker added that he based this prediction on his experience “on the ground,” noting that he has traveled to 198 cities across 38 states while holding events. And he argued that the elevation of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee changes little about the electoral landscape.
Johnson in particular pointed to the Congressional Leadership Fund’s fundraising haul this year, and a generic ballot where Democrats are up 1 point. He argued this is a scenario in which they win based on how House districts are drawn.
Top Trump campaign adviser Chris LaCivita and Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio then walked members through their perspective of the presidential state of the race, with both claiming that the news media have unfairly covered the Democratic candidate.
LaCivita noted that the upcoming presidential debate on Tuesday will be the first time Harris is actively put to the test. And LaCivita indicated he isn’t counting on Harris faceplanting the way President Joe Biden did in June, though he still expects Trump to emerge from the debate stronger.
“If we are consistent on messaging and stand together, it’ll be a landslide,” LaCivita told the call attendees, according to the readout.
He also noted that they are competitive in multiple battleground states and projected confidence in flipping the Senate, arguing that Montana and West Virginia — which would be sufficient to win the majority as long as Republicans don’t suffer unexpected defeats in Florida or Texas — are theirs to win.
Fabrizio, the Trump campaign pollster, cited Nate Silver’s forecast model and RealClearPolitics polling averages as he walked through their chances of beating Harris, some of which were obtained by POLITICO.
He also pointed to a voter group showing the campaign promising support: voters who have second jobs, noting that this has led them to outperform with minority communities.
The Trump campaign additionally laid out various voter registration trends in various battleground states and touted their mobilization efforts across the country, citing canvassing, phone-banking and hand-written postcard writing to voters as a way to get out the vote.
