Another dangerous moment appears to be passing in this disastrous conflict, but great peril remains for Israel, Lebanon and the wider region.
Israel’s pre-emptive strike and Hezbollah’s retaliatory attack for the assassination of their top commander in late July risked plunging both sides into all-out war.
That nightmare scenario appears to be fading for now, but all of the dynamics for a much bigger conflict remain.
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Effectively the stand-off – with each side sending messages with bombs and rockets – continues.
The Israelis and Hezbollah are signalling they do not seek a wider war but the risk of accident and miscalculation remain.
Israel and Hezbollah ‘urge against escalation’ – follow latest
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Both sides are also under pressure to do more, which could also lead to a dangerous spiral.
Israel will say it had no choice, but its airstrikes in Lebanon risks igniting a regional war
What is Hezbollah and how powerful is its military?
Israel says it’s carried out ‘pre-emptive’ airstrikes in Lebanon – as Hezbollah fires back
There are people behind Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, who are urging a more forceful response to Israel’s continued assault on Gaza.
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And Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has very loud voices in his ear telling him to launch a major operation against the Lebanese militant group to force it back from the border and allow tens of thousands of Israelis to return home.
The problem is that violence often ends up having its own logic and can take actors in directions they may not foresee.
It may not be in Israel or Hezbollah’s interest to fight a major war, but it may happen anyway.
And the consequences would be disastrous with significant damage and casualties on both sides.
The key to dialling down the tensions would be a ceasefire in Gaza, but for the moment that seems to be out of reach – meaning great danger lies ahead.
