US secretary of state Anthony Blinken’s trip to the Middle East is increasingly looking like a flight of fantasy.
Mr Blinken says Israel has accepted his ceasefire deal, what he calls a final bridging proposal.
The problem is it is not clear if there is much of a workable proposal there yet to accept.
The brutal reality in Jerusalem is it is impossible to find anyone here who shares America’s optimism, which is looking increasingly delusional.
In contrast to his public professions of support, many Israeli observers believe Benjamin Netanyahu does not want a deal for political reasons and has found a way to stymie progress.
He fears a deal would lead to hardliners in his government walking out and collapsing it. And he is still holding out for the ever diminishing prospect of achieving his over ambitious goal of “total victory” over Hamas.
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As Nahum Barnea – one of Israel’s most respected political commentators – put it: “What blew everything up was Netanyahu’s insistence on an Israeli military presence along the entire length of the Philadelphi corridor,” as the strip of land between Gaza and Egypt is called.
That insistence is a marked change in position from what Americans negotiated two months ago and which Hamas reportedly accepted. Hamas will not approve the plan as things stand and Egypt is unhappy with Israel staying on the border too.
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But Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar doesn’t seem to want a ceasefire either. He has shifted demands too and Hamas is believed to be on the verge of expanding its war, with suicide bombers like those sent to Tel Aviv on Sunday night.
If all of the above is true, then the main function of these talks is simply keeping up appearances. There is a good reason for that, the US believes if they completely collapse, Iran and Hezbollah will follow through on their threat to avenge the assassinations of two senior figures.
That would be very unfortunate for the region and for the Biden administration particularly were it to happen in the middle of the Democrats’ convention.
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But talking for the sake of talking is not going to end this conflict, bring the hostages home or end the unimaginable suffering of the people of Gaza, however much wishful thinking on the part of the Americans.
