Hezbollah and Iran are poised to attack Israel this week to avenge the assassinations of two of their leaders.
That is the assessment of Israeli intelligence, according to the country’s best connected security correspondents.
One of them Ronen Bergman, author of Rise and Kill First: The Secret History of Israel’s Targeted Assassinations, told Sky News that Israel’s spies say it is not a question of if, but when.
“It will come and it will come, they say, between today, Monday, and the end of this week,” he says. “It will come in two parts. First, Hezbollah from the north and then Iran. It will be aiming at significant military targets.”
Mr Bergman, a staff writer for the New York Times, says Israeli intelligence has concluded an attack is imminent based on intelligence gathered in Iran.
Their enemies are likely to target sites connected with the assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr a fortnight ago.
These could include air bases and intelligence headquarters.
Israeli leaders, Mr Bergman says, are aware that in the minds of the Iranian leadership, the assassinations have left them with no option but to strike.
“The bottom line was that Israel, according to their belief and mindset, needs to pay, it needs to be punished for something that they see as a brutal violation of their sovereignty,” he adds.
And in the case of Iran, even a brutal embarrassment.
Mr Haniyeh was killed visiting Tehran for the funeral of Iran’s president while staying in government accommodation – the guest of the country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
In Tehran, Professor Mohammad Marandi, an analyst with close ties to the country’s government, told Sky News Iran has to act.
“Yes, there’s really no option,” he says. “The Israeli regime carried out an assassination in Tehran. A high ranking official was murdered. An official guest of the country in an official guest house that belonged to the state.”
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Iran’s Lebanese allies Hezbollah also seeks retribution for the death of its military chief of staff Fuad Shukr in Beirut in an airstrike two weeks ago.
The stage is set for a potential repeat of April’s massive escalation when Iran launched hundreds of missiles in its first direct attack on Israel, avenging another high ranking assassination.
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The fear is a repeat of what happened in 2006 with an all-out war – this time between Israel, Hezbollah and Iran.
Neither side is thought to want a bigger conflict – there have been plenty of opportunities to start one since 7 October.
Each side will need to carefully calibrate their responses to each provocation to avoid greater escalation.
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Mr Bergman says that could easily spiral into all-out conflict.
“It’s a response to a response, a retaliation for a retaliation,” he says. “And there’s another name for such an exchange – it’s called war.”
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Fearing the worst, Israel’s American allies are taking no chances speeding up the arrival of naval assets to the region, an aircraft carrier battle group and guided missile submarine
Once again, the region is on the brink of dangerous escalation.
