Junior doctors will begin voting later this month on whether to accept the government’s pay offer.
The new Labour government has offered the medics in England a 22.3% average pay rise, which the British Medical Association (BMA) union is recommending is accepted by members.
If it does pass, it would signal an end to the industrial action that has gripped junior doctors in recent years.
According to the BMA, the vote will take place between 19 August and 15 September.
Members will be able to cast their ballots digitally, and so a result will be forthcoming not long after the polls close.
The pay offer is backdated to the 23/24 financial year, and continues into the 24/25 period.
It is structured to equate to an average 22.3% rise over the two years.
During their negotiations with the government, the BMA had sought a path towards “pay restoration” valued at an increase of more than 30%.
This was based on restoring pay to the levels junior doctors had before the 2008 financial crisis.
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However, even if the terms are accepted, there is a potential for further strikes in the future.
In information provided for junior doctors, the BMA said: “If we accept this offer now, we essentially ‘bank’ the pay rise with backdating proposed, and this higher pay will create the baseline from which we can go into dispute and ballot for action after April 2025 to continue pursuing pay restoration, should the [pay recommendation board] fail to deliver on its reforms, and the government fail to instil confidence in the process.”
The union adds that any additional payments would not be received until November due to the way the payroll system works.
The government has been criticised by the Conservative opposition for the pay offer to junior doctors.
It came alongside above inflation pay offers to the public sectors, which is thought to have cost £9.4bn.
Shadow health secretary Victoria Atkins, who was health secretary before the election, said a 20% rise for junior doctors was predicted to cost £1.7bn when she was in government.
She called on Chancellor Rachel Reeves to clarify the cost of the government offer.
“If she does not, the public will see this for exactly what it is – a ploy to get them to accept Labour‘s tax rises,” she said.
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Ms Reeves, however, said the pay rise will cost the taxpayer £350m.
She said this is a “drop in ocean” compared with the cost of industrial action in the NHS last year – which the chancellor claimed was £1.7bn, although this could include action from other parts of the health system like nurses and consultants.
