Vice President Kamala Harris has the lead over former President Donald Trump among Maine voters in the first poll here released since President Joe Biden announced he would not seek reelection in November.
Harris, who is set to win her party’s presidential nomination at next month’s Democratic National Convention, had 48 percent of likely Maine voters on her side to 40 percent for Trump, per the University of New Hampshire Survey Center’s Pine Tree State Poll released Thursday.
Four percent of likely voters in Maine said they would support independent Robert Kennedy Jr. if the election were held today, with 1 percent going for a smattering of other third-party candidates. If they could only vote for Harris or Trump, then 54 percent of likely Maine voters said they would back Harris while 45 percent would support Trump, the new poll found.
Democrats will take positives from the latest survey, as a separate poll conducted in April had Trump ahead of Biden in Maine until a ranked-choice count put Biden narrowly ahead of Trump. Former President George H.W. Bush was the last Republican to win Maine in 1988, though Trump earned one of its four electors in both 2016 and 2020 by carrying the rural 2nd District.
The new UNH survey had Trump leading Harris by 4 percentage points in the 2nd District, while Harris was up by 20 percentage points in the liberal 1st District covering southern Maine. The poll also showed independents are divided, with 33 percent backing Harris, 26 percent supporting Trump and 13 percent preferring Kennedy.
After a shaky June debate put his party into a spiral over concerns about his fitness and ability to beat Trump again, Biden, 81, announced Sunday he would step aside and support Harris, 59, as his replacement. The switch has, for now, given Democrats energy and optimism, with Harris virtually tied with the 78-year-old Trump in national polls since the weekend.
Harris, who is seeking to become the first woman to become president, quickly went to work to secure enough delegates to win the nomination at the party’s convention that starts Aug. 19 in Chicago, and she raised $81 million within a day of Biden’s bombshell announcement. The new poll found three-quarters of Maine Democrats back Harris.
Doug Emhoff, the vice president’s husband, made his first official campaign stop in Maine on Wednesday, visiting Planned Parenthood’s Portland office for an abortion-focused roundtable before attending a rally and then a private fundraiser.
The next decision facing Harris is who to pick as her running mate. Among Maine voters supporting Harris, 21 percent mentioned Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg as their preferred choice, while 17 percent picked U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Arizona, 7 percent went for Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear was at 6 percent.
Trump tapped U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, as his vice presidential candidate, and 81 percent of Trump supporters in the Maine poll said they like that choice. The Maine survey had 1,502 people complete it between Tuesday and Thursday, and the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percent.
