As Joe Biden withdraws from the 2024 US presidential race and Kamala Harris gains support from prominent Democrats, data from Betfair Exchange indicates that her odds are improving.
The vice president still faces a significant challenge to surpass Donald Trump, however, who has maintained strong performance over nearly the past year.
A day before Mr Biden dropped out of the presidential race, he was 57 percentage points behind Mr Trump according to betting odds data from Betfair.
Mr Trump’s chances of winning were 64%, with Mr Biden on 7% and Ms Harris on 17%.
At the start of the 2024 Republican National Convention, just days after Mr Trump’s assassination attempt, his chances stood at 69%.
After Mr Biden dropped out of the race on Sunday, Mr Trump’s chances of winning had fallen to 62%.
As Mr Biden endorsed Ms Harris on Sunday, her chances rose by six percentage points to 23% and as more endorsements come in from top Democrats today her chances have gone up to 29%, the highest recorded for the current vice president but still 33 percentage points behind Mr Trump.
Interestingly, Ms Harris’s chances of winning were higher than both Mr Biden and Mr Trump in 2021.
Mr Biden’s numerous gaffes, from introducing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as Vladimir Putin, to rambling and mumbling at the first debate of the presidential season, has meant Mr Trump has enjoyed a particularly high lead over the current US president over the past month.
From the beginning of July 2024, Mr Trump’s lead over Mr Biden according to the bookies has consistently been 40 percentage points or more. From 5 July it’s been at least 50 percentage points.
Mr Trump has consistently been ahead of Mr Biden since around the time of the current president’s impeachment inquiry in September 2023, with the exception of three days in April 2024 where Mr Biden’s chances were less than a percentage point more than Mr Trump.
That period covers the time leading up to Mr Trump’s criminal trial, although on 30 May when he was eventually found guilty, he had a lead over Mr Biden of two percentage points.
Mr Biden’s highest lead over Mr Trump was on 7 June 2023, when he was 18 percentage points ahead.
Several of Mr Biden’s top leads over Mr Trump occurred in June 2023, around the time indictments were filed against Mr Trump.
One was submitted on 30 March, another on 8 June, which was dismissed and two more in August which have yet to be decided.
He was found guilty on all counts of falsifying business records related to the indictment filed on 30 March.
However, this did not significantly dent his lead, likely due to growing concerns about Mr Biden’s fitness to remain in office, which ultimately led to his withdrawal from the race.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open-source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
