10x Research said President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race would allow former President Donald Trump to secure a “decisive victory” in the November election.
According to the firm:
“No credible candidate can seriously challenge Donald Trump. The November election appears to have been decided without a single vote.”
10x believes this shift holds significant implications for both the political landscape and the crypto industry as a pro-crypto administration is now more likely to take over the White House, potentially leading to substantial changes in the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) leadership.
SEC leadership change
10x head of research Markus Thielen said that historically, the transition between administrations has prompted the resignation of the incumbent SEC chair.
Thielen believes the cycle could repeat under a Trump administration, with SEC Chair Gary Gensler likely resigning within the first two months of 2025 — well before his term officially ends on June 5, 2026.
He pointed to previous transitions that have shown this pattern, including Mary Jo White, Christopher Cox, and Harvey Pitt — each of whom resigned before their terms were up due to political pressure.
Thielen said that a Trump presidency would likely end Gensler’s role as head of the SEC, given the administration’s pro-crypto stance. In February, Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance, criticized Gensler as the “worst person” to regulate crypto, citing a backward approach to crypto policy.
Leadership changes at the SEC could bring new perspectives and policies regarding the oversight of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. A pro-crypto administration is expected to foster a more favorable regulatory framework for digital assets, leading to growth and innovation within the industry.
Bullish catalyst
Thielen highlighted several bullish catalysts for the crypto market this week, including the potential launch of spot Ethereum ETFs, as well as “multiple reports and rumors” about Trump making a surprise announcement at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville on July 25.
Industry insiders claim Trump might endorse Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset at the conference and address some of the regulatory challenges the industry faces.
Thiele believes such an announcement will be the catalyst for a “parabolic” rise in Bitcoin’s value. He cautioned investors against taking profits or shorting BTC before Trump’s speech, suggesting that Bitcoin’s previous bull market all-time high of $68,300 could be a key level for future price action.
Bitcoin was trading at roughly $68,100 as of press time — up 1.1% over the past hours — and hovering close to its previous all-time highs, based on CryptoSlate data.
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