You don’t hear French much anymore in places like Lewiston, whose factories drew waves of immigrants from Quebec who left a massive imprint on Maine.
But the Franco-Americans still represent about a fifth of Mainers and are the deciding bloc in elections here, according to retired Bowdoin College political scientist Christian Potholm. That includes Gov. Janet Mills’ 2022 victory over former Gov. Paul LePage, which Potholm figures is the only time ever that a non-Franco has beaten a Franco among Francos in Maine.
That is one of the observations in Potholm’s new book, “How Maine Decides,” which mostly discusses referendums. Potholm credits Francos with deciding major elections since the state eliminated straight-ticket voting in 1972, when he managed Republican William S. Cohen’s winning campaign that swung Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.
And Francos are at the heart of the parallels that Potholm sees from that race to the one coming this year between U.S. Rep. Jared Golden, a Democrat from Lewiston, and state Rep. Austin Theriault, R-Fort Kent, in the 2nd District that is once again up for grabs.
Some questions and answers have been edited for length and clarity.
BDN: This year, we have a really interesting geographic matchup. We have a Catholic guy named Theriault from the St. John Valley vs. a guy named Golden from Lewiston. Can you find a historic analog for this?
Potholm: I woke up the other day, and I said, ‘Wait a minute, this is 1972, flipped.’ This is going to sound like I’m getting into the Franco American weeds, but I honestly believe this is key.
When [Republican] Bill Cohen ran against Elmer Violette [to replace Democrat William Hathaway in the 2nd District seat], Elmer Violette was an Acadian from Madawaska. So we had a Democrat from the St. John Valley and Cohen from Bangor.
But in Lewiston, so many of those Francos said, ‘We want to have a Franco congressman, but we don’t want him to be from the St. John Valley. We want him to be from Lewiston.’
Now, it’s flipped around. Now, there’s a Republican from the St. John Valley who is a Franco, but Golden has represented the biggest Franco concentration in Lewiston. How the St. John Valley Francos and the rest of the Francos vote will determine the outcome of the election.
BDN: That also goes to how these regions have changed, right? Lewiston is less of a swing city than it was even a decade ago. The St. John Valley looks about to go fully Republican.
Potholm: It’s hard to imagine [given the region’s history]. If I were either one of those guys, I’d do a focus group.
When you think about it, from Lewiston to Fort Kent is almost like from there to New York City. Does distance and background in cultural stuff trump Franco-ness? We don’t know yet, but I wouldn’t bet against the Lewiston Francos.
BDN: The focus of your new book is the referendum process, of course. You were involved in the 2004 bear-baiting referendum. How do you see money affecting those races, for better or worse?
I think the [2010] Citizens United decision by the Supreme Court is the worst, or one of the worst, decisions in the history of our republic. There’s so much dark money and so much cacophony of background, you really have to come up with very, very good commercials.
The most important ingredient to me in the ballot measure was always control. I like that so much better than party things, where the parties, the people that make the party platforms, they’ll sink you every time. On referenda, you didn’t have to worry about that.
But with referenda, you’ve got to have it simple. You got to stick to it. You’ve got to make sure that you’re only broadcasting — or narrow casting — the things that work for you, not just the things that you’re the people that are supporting you want you to sell. So you’ve got to sell what the people are buying, not what your group necessarily wants to sell.
