AUGUSTA, Maine — One week from today, Maine voters will make decisions that could loom large in the November election cycle to be dominated by the rematch between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden.
The biggest race on June 11 is in the swing 2nd Congressional District, where two Republicans are vying for the right to take on Democratic U.S. Rep. Jared Golden. But low turnout could be a major factor in that race and others. A few incumbent state lawmakers also have something to fear in a small set of contested primaries.
Here’s what you need to know a week before Election Day.
A 2nd District candidate is swamping the other in money, but a race may still be on.
One of the biggest moments in the Republican primary in the swing 2nd District was before the race even formally started: Freshman state Rep. Austin Theriault of Fort Kent locked down the support of House Republicans’ campaign arm weeks before declaring a run.
Theriault, a former NASCAR driver, also has Trump’s all-important support in his race with fellow state Rep. Mike Soboleski of Phillips. Yet the prevailing sentiment in Republican circles is that Soboleski has made this a race. His base has largely been among fellow lawmakers and conservative activists around the state, including evangelicals.
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Theriault has raised more than $1.2 million as of May 22 to $117,000 for Soboleski, and a super PAC funded by past racing allies has sent out at least four rounds of mail on his behalf and is running a text messaging campaign. Theriault is running TV ads unanswered by Soboleski, who has spent a mere $65 to advertise Facebook and sister platforms in the past 90 days.
If Soboleski prevails, it will be one of the biggest upsets in Maine political history. But he’s fighting uphill due in large part to Theriault’s increased ability to target voters in the homestretch.
Low turnout, especially among Republicans, could be a factor.
A factor in the 2nd District race and others could be low voter interest. In a year with a presidential primary and a high-visibility November election, this may be the election that many people sit out. Maine Republican Party Jason Savage said last week that he has seen confusion about this election in his party’s base.
One way to look at enthusiasm for an election is in absentee ballot requests, which remain low in the early going. Only about 24,000 voters — or 2.5 percent of all voters — requested absentee ballots as of Monday afternoon. Absentees made up just over 1 in 6 voters during the March primaries.
It’s hard to know exactly who would be helped by less turnout. If Theriault and other candidates with financial advantages use their resources to target small groups well, they may be helped. The pro-Soboleski case would be if he has tighter networks of supporters who can rally conservative voters in their regions. We’ll see how it plays out down the ballot.
Races featuring State House incumbents are ones to watch.
A few incumbent state lawmakers have tough roads ahead. The most well-publicized one is Rep. Bruce White, D-Waterville, who is being challenged by Cassie Julia. She has made White’s anti-abortion record the main issue in the campaign, and Planned Parenthood’s regional political arm has spent thousands of dollars against White.
In the Brewer area, Sen. Peter Lyford, R-Eddington, may lose his seat to Rep. David Haggan, R-Hampden. Rep. Joseph Galletta, R-Durham, who was recently singled out by the Portland Press Herald for missing two-thirds of the Legislature’s days during the latest session, faces conservative activist Guy Lebida of Bowdoin. And Rep. Joe Perry, D-Bangor, faces lawyer Zachary Smith, who has been endorsed by the progressive Maine People’s Alliance.
